Election Analysis: No Blue Wave

The vicious fight for control of the House and Senate is officially over.

At 12:00 Midnight on 11/7, the country turns towards 2020 in what will be a bitter fight for political power in America.

The dynamic will remain the same: MAGA candidates and political philosophies will be on the ballot against what is left of the Democratic Party.

We will analyze that upcoming dynamic in a future piece.

For now, we will take a look at what happened last night…

As of 6:30 PM Eastern Time, Democrats have taken control of the house by an unofficial count of 222 Seats against 196 for Republicans.

There are multiple tight races still outstanding, mostly from the West Coast. The unofficial estimate is that when the votes are finalized, Democrats will hold a 227 to 208 margin, which is a 9 seat majority.

This means they picked up a total of 34 seats.

In a historic sense, this is extremely low for a first term President - The only total lower was Ronald Reagan with 28.

This is with a media machine that is a propaganda arm for the Democratic party, pushing anti Trump and anti Conservative stories consistently.

The things we could do with fair coverage are endless, but that isn't going to happen.

The elites hate us and Trump.

In the Senate, with one race in Arizona outstanding in which the Republican Martha McSally is up with 78% of precincts reporting, and a runoff to occur in the second seat in Mississippi as per election law, that seat is solid Red.

When the dust settles, the Republicans will have 54 to the Democrats 46.

A strong showing, effectively a Red Fire wall in what was supposed to be a Blue Wave.

That narrative, which was largely based off polls using a 25% Republican voter sample nearly universally, was pushed by the media.

In the end, in the House, over 10 seats were converted from Red to Blue in formerly Republican districts due to the re-drawing of district lines ahead of this election by Democratic governors in Virginia, Pennsylvania, Minnesota, New York and New Jersey.

The expansion of these districts enabled formerly out of district Democrats to vote in these elections.

The Result was 29 victories for Democrats nationwide under 1.8 percentage points.

Republicans held strong in certain areas and kept their seats. Many anti Trump Republicans retiring in lieu of this election caused the open seat amount to be abnormally high.

In the Senate, Republicans lost in Nevada. Nevada is now a Blue state. The demographics of the state have been changing and the suburban areas now far exceed the population count in the heavily red rural areas.

This was the only state Hillary Clinton won in which an incumbent Republican was on the ballot and promptly lost.

Republicans trounced incumbent Democrats in Missouri, North Dakota and Indiana for net pickups. They fell narrowly short in Montana where Jon Tester won by a few thousand votes as the Libertarian candidate siphoned percentages off the Republican.

This is a problem nationwide in tight states for Republicans.

Some fusion with Libertarians must come to pass so we don't split the ticket.

In Florida, Governor Rick Scott ascended into the Senate to add a net pickup over long time incumbent Bill Nelson. Both he and newly elected Governor Ron Desanctis, road a wave off late support from the President to victory.

Bringing us to the governorships, Republicans once again did well! They have 27 states nationwide against 23 for the Democrats.

Importantly ahead of 2020, we own the Mansions in tough swing states of Florida and Ohio.

Brian Kemp beat Abrams without a runoff in Georgia in a massively Democratic-funded race.

We lost with Scott Walker in Wisconsin by 1,300 votes.

The Libertarian won 1 percentage point in Wisconsin, once again highlighting the previous point about splitting the ticket.

In New Mexico, The Republican pulled in 33% as the Libertarian got 16.5%.

In Kansas, MAGA Candidate Kris Kobach lost by 4 points due to the establishment rejecting him and backing the Republican he beat in the primaries as an independent. T

hat sucked 6.5% away from Kobach resulting in an unlikely Democratic pickup. T

he margins, again, are not indicative of a Democratic wave, especially in Blue states. It is historic for a first term-sitting President to pick up seats in the Senate. It has only happened six times in our country’s history, and the President led that charge.

The Democratic Messiah Barack Obama lost 63 House seats his first go-around and, seven Senate seats.

In his Presidential totality, he lost over 900 combined Democratic leadership seats - A record! With Democrats controlling the house and Republicans comfortable in the Senate, we are set for a showdown till 2020.

MAGA policies against the Far Left of Andrew Gillum and Robert Francis O'Rourke prevailed.

The question now is: What will Democrats do? How will they attempt to legislate, or will they even try to legislate?

Will they embrace the lunacy of Alexandra Ocascio-Cortez, or try to move the needle with moderate approaches?

The smart money is on the Left doubling down on their unhinged rhetoric. In the end, they still do not understand what makes our Country great, or why the President won.

They will be puzzled again when they get smashed across the board two years from now.

We are still the land of the free, and common sense approaches still rule the day.

Yesterday was a facade when you unmask the numbers and evaluate how it shook it. The choice will again be as clear as can be going forward. Brace Yourselves, we are at war. Stay the course. 

                                           AMERICA FIRST

                                             -JD